Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
